Failure of Copenhagen & Obama-ism

Thanks to CNN-IBN for posting the 7 page pdf, actually it has a single cover page, 2.5 pages of text and 3 pages for empty wishlist.

The (by now) infamous paragraph of 2 degree temperature change, states that signatories "would enhance long-term cooperative action to combat climate change". What would you enhance upon my dear, you have not even met the kyoto accord?

No timeline mentioned in that para and no need for inspection regime.

Lets come down to the next paragraph, this talks about need to cut emissions to go to 50% percent. This is a reiteration but that point is used to side-step the peaking year issue.

Next paragraph talks about adapting to changed climate and developed nations would help without specifying any pledge.

I hate to say this document don't even qualify as a declaration.

We were one step up and this has taken two steps back.

Fossil fuel industry wins again, Obama is nothing but a show-boat.

Obama's actions have proved him to be as pro-oil as a Neo-con.

Who is affected by climate change in india

The elite is most environment insensitive in India. You need to explain to the commoner that what are the ill-effects of climate change. Frequent cyclones, irregular monsoon, crop failure, water scarcity, yield reduction these are common mans problem. The food price inflation is triggered in 2009 by climate change.

Media and commoners are thinking sea-rise will trigger a tsunami, but in reality it will get worse day by day and very slowly and without any drama.

Glaciers wont disappear overnight, some times won't even recede very dramatically, but a glacial lake burst can wipe out thousands in a day (very much like Bihar 2008 floods which was triggered by bursting of a dam).

The poor is being effected the most, while sick bureaucrats hassle over Intensity cut or per capita reduction.The people in Mumbai who are facing a tough time in getting tap water are direct victims of climate change. All fisherman who live by the vast coastline are being affected by climate change. And yes, all of you who find Pulses (Daal) costly are victims of climate change.

Indian Stand on Copenhapen summit

I have heard Mr. Jairam Ramesh at Loksabha on CNN-IBN. It's comforting to note that, he understands the upcoming problems. He has raised 4 important points in his speech (all of them are in my top 10 problem list) and he even sounded sincere.

But our agreed stand across political spectrum will not help India or the environment. Lets get our non-negotiable:

1. The treaty can not be "Legally binding". Why folks want a "legally binding" treaty because it has been a common experience that promises made earlier has rarely been kept. You might get 250 different excuses in every summit.

2. A carbon intensity cut of 20%-25% is not good enough, its emission / gdp as the good minister explained. Well if a country get higher Paper GDP (there are various instruments like ignoring inflation, boosting low-carbon-footprint & low-employment-intensive services etc etc), then you get a better carbon intensity score. Even if you fail the target, you can blame it on recession, downturn etc etc. As we know the present economic dream team is drooling over a foolish expectation of double digit growth in at least 7-8 times in next 11 years. In 2020 they will tell you, "Well, Ramesh you done exceeding well,but it is the economy that failed us".

My Dear Minister, Please understand ENVIRONMENT & NATURE does not give a damn about PER CAPITA OR GDP Figures. It works on simple laws of Physics (With out bothering whether you call it science or vigyan).

If we leave a healthy environment for next generation, they will be able to have a healthy economy anyway. Remember Economy & Society have a longer history than Economics. So don't let experts confuse you, do the right thing and revise your/our stand.

Phyan landfall

This was the position of Phyan at 1pm , landfall started.

This was the position of Phyan at 2pm , landfall very much on .

Phyan at 3 pm IST. All screenshots taken from CIMSS Tropical cyclone sites. Well done guys.

Democracy decays without people's vigilance

In India Every MP (Member of Parliament) is given Rs. 2 crore (Usually released in 2 equal parts) but nobody is using any of of it. Thanks to RTI (Right To Information Act which is very new in India) and mplads.nic.in (A website where MPs Local Area Development funds allocation and usage is shown for the public) we now know who is using how much? Visit the web-site and you will find that although 1 crore has been released to almost all MPs (for spending in 6 months in the field of Local Area Development), no body has allocated any funds for any purpose.

The "Released/Expenditure" webpage is beautifully broken up in several statements, Click on "Released/Expenditure State-wise Details for 15th Lok Sabha MPs" and enter the amazing world of inactive MPs. Going by the election promises, I was expecting that they might have expended the whole amount in weeks. Add to that; The promise of using these funds for helping drought affected rural population.

The report has columns like :

• Entitlement of Constituency(Rs.Crore)
• Released by G.O.I.(Rs.Crore)
• Amount available with interest (Rs.Crore)
• Amount Recommended (Rs.Crore)
• Amount Sanctioned(Rs.Crore)
• Expenditure Incurred (Rs.Crore)
• Percent of Utilisation Over Released
• Unspent Balance(Rs.Crore)

You would find 2.00 in first column, 1.00 in 2nd, 3rd column and 1.0 in last column.

At a first glimpse it would look like the page has not been updated.

But thanks to the following MPs (Yes. I can name them all, they are that few) who have some other values (utilization etc) against them.

• Harsimrat Kaur Badal-BHATINDA-Punjab
• Kavuri Sambasiva Rao -ELURU-AP
• Mohammad Asrarul Haque-KISHANGANJ-Bihar

Couple of MPs have recommended but utilization not yet reported:

Ganeshrao Nagorao Dudhgaonkar -PARBHANI -Maharashtra

and

Guddu Premchand UJJAIN(SC)-Madya Pradesh

Out of 543 MPs, 3 could show some progress and 2 more can show some allocation. Debating the proper usage is a far cry kind of scenario as they don't even report to the authorities.

A clear show of utter disrespect to the concept of being accountable to the people.

Is this height of Mal-governance? Does n't this prove, Democracy decays without people's vigilance

Recovery is on, but only for the SUPER-RICH

Most Wall Street Banks will be reporting in green for last quarter only because speculation and insider trading has lifted the stock markets to artificial highs. If you calculated the stocks and derivatives at an average price of last 3 quarters, they will end up in red.

Why the recovery isn't actually as impressive as finance experts says, Lets investigate:

1. The manufacturing sectors came out from their previous loss making time, only by slashing workforce and reducing prices. The retail segment is doing the same. This means consumer has less amount to spend (rather the theory of Americans have started saving huge amount in their socks or under their pillow).

2. So the so called "Recovered Economy" has a far less consumer base to start with. With job losses continuing and people who are without a job for 12 months no longer counted on neither as Jobless nor as Employed, there is no immediate chance of major expansion in that base. The consumer confidence data and retail sales figure shows that.

3. Banks have become smarter since Enron, they don't cook up their books directly, instead they influence market to inflate their asset class. In old days, doing this in stock market could have landed one jail for Insider Trading.

Be careful and take Analysts upgrade news with a pinch of salt. Recovery is on, but only for the super-rich ( The too big to fail category), too bad if you are not in it.

Read roubini's warning on Next Bubble at http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257791/

Are we doing well or not?:The lie of the Recovery

Are we doing well or not? These are merely matters in human perception. We indulge in statistical studies, check econometric indices and ultimately depend on third party opinions about our economy, our society and our lives.

Most often or not, Media and Government plays a crucial part. Take the example of the current recovery which started with leaking of Citibank and BoA CEO's optimistic internal memo about operational profits.

Since then, Gamblers has taken the center-stage in the financial world. All stock markets rebounded to new highs as if a new energy source has been invented or a mineral-rich highly fertile continent has been discovered. What boasted the market is that the rich has found ways and means to corrupt each and every-one of G-20 governments.

The rich may be from Manhattan, Monaco or Mumbai, they were pleasantly surprised to find that all politicians worldwide want to power and wealth, not for their country, not for the society they promised to serve; but for themselves.

So US,Western Europe, Russia, India & China reels under severe unemployment. Brazil is the only exception, because its president is a rare exception.

While US and Western Europe gives a technically correct (not morally correct or real) data on unemployment, India & China gives none what to ever. Money keeps floating to and fro between Tax heavens and Stock or commodity markets. Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman call for Simplified products and services went to deaf ears. Derivatives is still the king and this time around the complexity of the lie is much more. This time the governments are hand in glove with these economic terrorists (who run these too big to fail organizations).

From October 2009, a bunch of godforsaken analysts will start jumping up and down (or they will lose their jobs) singing joy in YoY figures, please remember that the base on which these matrices/ parameters are calculated were plummeting same time last year. The First case in Indian IIP (Index of industrial production) figures of August 2009. Every analyst conveniently forgot that IIP blipped August, last year. And the stock market soared.

Economic Recovery means improvement of life of all, by all and for all. And that my dear friend is not the case now.