Droughts in India to worsen with climate change -- study

So it not just me, lots of scientists are saying it too:
In a study published in the May 15 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, Chul Eddy Chung and V. Ramanathan of Scripps Oceanography say that cooler-than-normal temperatures in the northern part of the Indian ocean have weakened the region's natural climate circulation and monsoon conditions, resulting in reduced rainfall over India and increased rainfall over the Sahel area south of the Sahara in Africa.

Droughts in India to worsen with climate change -- study

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Stupid Indian Media Outlook

The Indian media has done it again. Just because the local correspondent forgot the umbrella and got drenched they are calling the drought is over.
Fact is that one spell of 24 hour depression does not make a healthy Indian monsoon and that is beyond their capacity of comprehension.
Fact is Indian media person has no or little knowledge of satellite imagery or space science nor general meteorology and of course they don't care to know how agriculture works. For them food is produced by supermarket shelves and kitchens.
Most politicians were just waking up to the climate change and at least to this years' Monsoon conditions and in comes media men clad in their all pervasive ignorance; making a joke out of governments drought relief efforts.

Climate Change is just changing gear - watch out

Check out the IMD map, the rainfall deficiency is at 19% and that my dear is Normal by IMD standard. We must make peoples movement stronger. Our agriculture Minister had said there are 13 months of grain stock, then why do you find the prices of all pulses, rice prices going up. What about vegetables, lack of fresh vegetables will lower the immunity level and with swine flu and avian flu present in the habitat, the chance of a flu epidemic in November can not be ruled out.
We are living in a time,when having a foresight can drive you nuts. Where are models of IMD guys? why are they saying nothing about early withdrawal of Monsoon. Every publicly posted model are saying August rain will be weak. Thats good news for orissa and saurastra but real bad news for rest of India.

Met. Zone	Terrain	Normal Rainfall	Actual Rainfall	% Change
Coastal Karnataka	Coastal Plain	1763.9	1866.6	5.82
Konkan & Goa	Coastal Plain	1442.3	1431	-0.78
Kerala	Coastal Plain	1246	1260.1	1.13
Orissa	Coastal Plain	453.1	661.5	45.99
Saurashtra & kautch + Diu	Coastal Plain	226.2	339.1	49.91
Coastal A.P.	Coastal Plain	207	143	-30.92
Tamil Nadu & Pondi.	Coastal Plain	89.2	76.8	-13.90
	Coastal Plain Total	5427.7	5778.1	6.46
Gangetic W.B.	Grain bowl	465.6	273.3	-41.30
Bihar	Grain bowl	419.4	150.6	-64.09
East UP	Grain bowl	330.1	139.9	-57.62
West UP	Grain bowl	253.2	105.5	-58.33
Punjab	Grain bowl	171.9	87.8	-48.92
Har., Chd & Delhi	Grain bowl	163.7	58.1	-64.51
	Grain bowl Total	1803.9	815.2	-54.81
Assam & Meghalaya	H.Plains & plateau	975.1	532.4	-45.40
	H.Plains & plateau Total	975.1	532.4
Sikkim Him. WB	Himalayan	918.9	627	-31.77
Arunachal Pradesh	Himalayan	912.1	637.6	-30.10
N.M.M.T.	Himalayan	607	326	-46.29
Uttarakhand	Himalayan	456.4	263	-42.38
HP	Himalayan	281.7	132.3	-53.04
Jammu & Kashmir	Himalayan	178.1	142	-20.27
	Himalayan Total	3354.2	2127.9	-36.56
A & N Islands	Islands	680.5	727.2	6.86
Lakshadweep	Islands	524.2	687.1	31.08
	Islands Total	1204.7	1414.3	17.40
E. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	216.2	200	-7.49
N. I. Karnataka	Low rainfall	182.6	191.8	5.04
Rayalaseema	Low rainfall	117.9	78.6	-33.33
W. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	98.5	82.7	-16.04
	Low rainfall Total	615.2	553.1	-10.09
Chattisgarh	Plateau & Plains	467	431.2	-7.67
Jharkhand	Plateau & Plains	432	252.6	-41.53
Vidarbha	Plateau & Plains	402.2	361.1	-10.22
East MP	Plateau & Plains	406.6	353.7	-13.01
Inner Gujarat & Daman	Plateau & Plains	378.8	295.3	-22.04
Madhya Maharashtra	Plateau & Plains	308.3	303.4	-1.59
West MP	Plateau & Plains	316.3	293.1	-7.33
S. I. Karnataka	Plateau & Plains	296.7	395.8	33.40
Telangana	Plateau & Plains	293	171.6	-41.43
Marathwada	Plateau & Plains	265.1	199.8	-24.63
	Plateau & Plains Total	3566	3057.6	-14.26
	Grand Total	16946.8	14278.6

Advisory to politicians:
So Mr. Sharad Powar, now is the time to pass on the reserve grains to the people.
Mr. Manmohan Singh & Mr Pranab Mukherjee look into real india and see that food distribution has no logistical problem.
The prices are already way too high for poor and common people, if you don't want law and order situation not to deteorate then ensure food for all. Surely you don't want food riots like Haiti.

Monsoon Update Analysed

Watching 15th July Monsoon rainfall status image above, you may be tricked into thinking Monsoon has picked up pace and shall be normal, but the reality is far from the colored map released by IMD.
I don't know what weights they give to which segment, but Indian Meteorological Zones can grossly segmented into following zones based on terrains and geographical locations:

1. Himalayan Terrain : Rainfall here is important as it feeds the rivers of North India.
2. Northern Plains or the Grain Bowl: Deficiency is up to 55% (without fancy weights).
3. Coastal Plains: Rain has been excellent here but the agricultural produces of these zones are not that great.
4. Plateau & Plains: Rained better only on a rainy day.
5. Islands: They won't have water shortages this year.
6. Low Rainfall zones: Rajastan and some places on the wrong sides of the Western ghat mountains.
7. Assam & Meghalaya: This zone has hills, plateaus and mighty bhramaputa runs through its plains too, Tea plantation hub.

So I don't agree with met office a single bit on Monsoon prediction, the fact is monsoon is consistent below 2oth parallel and its not miserable on the places above it. The reason is, the missing arm of monsoon which came through Bay of Bengal.

Meteorological Zone	Terrain	Normal Rainfall	Actual Rainfall	% Change
Coastal Karnataka	Coastal Plain	1474.9	1520.4	3.09
Konkan & Goa	Coastal Plain	1206.5	1145.2	-5.08
Kerala	Coastal Plain	1080.7	908.3	-15.95
Orissa	Coastal Plain	373.4	446.6	19.60
Saurashtra kautch + Diu	Coastal Plain	179.9	181.9	1.11
Coastal A.P.	Coastal Plain	170.7	118.8	-30.40
Tamil Nadu Pondi.	Coastal Plain	72.9	59	-19.07
	Coastal Plain Total	4559	4380.2	-3.92
Gangetic W.B.	Grain bowl	392.2	210.3	-46.38
Bihar	Grain bowl	340	127.5	-62.50
East UP	Grain bowl	249.1	110	-55.84
West UP	Grain bowl	191.5	75.7	-60.47
Punjab	Grain bowl	127.5	56.2	-55.92
Har., Chd & Delhi	Grain bowl	122.4	49.9	-59.23
	Grain bowl Total	1422.7	629.6	-55.75
Assam & Meghalaya	H.Plains & plateau	853.9	488.1	-42.84
	H.Plains & plateau Total	853.9	488.1
Sikkim Him. WB	Himalayan	790.5	579	-26.76
Arunachal Pradesh	Himalayan	769.9	587	-23.76
N.M.M.T.	Himalayan	531.9	294.8	-44.57
Uttarakhand	Himalayan	359.4	153.3	-57.35
HP	Himalayan	209.7	86.8	-58.61
Jammu & Kashmir	Himalayan	130.4	101.9	-21.86
	Himalayan Total	2791.8	1802.8	-35.43
A & N Islands	Islands	680.5	727.2	6.86
Lakshadweep	Islands	458.7	637.2	38.91
	Islands Total	1139.2	1364.4	19.77
E. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	157.7	116.4	-26.19
N. I. Karnataka	Low rainfall	152.1	166.6	9.53
Rayalaseema	Low rainfall	95.6	75.8	-20.71
W. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	72.1	60.1	-16.64
	Low rainfall Total	477.5	418.9	-12.27
Chattisgarh	Plateau & Plains	378.3	306.5	-18.97
Jharkhand	Plateau & Plains	353	212.3	-39.86
Vidarbha	Plateau & Plains	331.9	275.5	-16.99
East MP	Plateau & Plains	323.3	218.9	-32.29
Inner Gujarat &Daman	Plateau & Plains	304.1	152.2	-49.95
Madhya Maharashtra	Plateau & Plains	254.1	220.8	-13.11
West MP	Plateau & Plains	247.9	169.3	-31.71
S. I. Karnataka	Plateau & Plains	246.5	269	9.13
Telangana	Plateau & Plains	234.7	141.8	-39.58
Marathwada	Plateau & Plains	220.5	166.1	-24.67
	Plateau & Plains Total	2894.3	2132.4	-26.32
	Grand Total	14138.4	11216.4

Effects to Agriculture:
1. Drastic fall is rice and other grain production.
2. Tea production of lower quality and quantity.
3. Hyper-inflation to be seen in food indices in next 6 months.

Fraud in science: Liar! Liar! | The Economist

An amazing article came up on The Economist. A must read for all who take scientific data seriously.
Fraud in science: Liar! Liar! | The Economist

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Monsoon 2009

Every other politician like Mr. Sharad Pawar, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee has started giving meteorological forecast these days. The reality is depicted in the maps given above (source: Indian Met Office Website).

This is the rainfall map for 1st June to 8Th July.

So what FM claimed in NDTV interview, that Monsoon will make up with surplus rain in July.

Few points I need to mention over here:

1. Monsoon is a natural phenomenon (Sorry Its not on government payroll) and has no compulsion to fill up any deficits or to meet any target. It is only governed by many simple rules of physics.

2. If monsoon actually fills up the rainfall deficits upto now in next 14 days or so, the areas shown in red in the maps above will be flooded. This will bring more misery,not less.

3. This one is for all politicians:

You can not trade with nature for your survival, Just like a new born baby can not trade with the mother for the milk.