Showing posts with label Stagflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stagflation. Show all posts

Thursday, May 5, 2022

Howdy Fed : Stock Bubble got bigger

 Blame It On The Bot Traders 

Yesterday US Federal Reserve increased Interest Rates to combat hyperinflation, as they were expected to do. But markets are driven by Bots which trade in accordance with market expectations.  So stock market trading bots started buying risky shares and assets with borrowed money.

Actually when interest rates go up, banks have to pay more for such trades, human traders with natural intelligence know that. But the bots have AI, the abnormal pretence of intelligence, their parameters for "Market Expectations" on Interest rates matched , so they bought and are still buying "a hell of a lot" shares.

Let's look at the Fundamentals, shall we, has anything changed?

1. Ukraine War - still Ongoing. 

2. Russian Oil Embargo & Market sanctions- still exist. 

3. Pandemic- still raging in places where stringent testing is ongoing. 

4. China- still under Covid Lockdown and without a trade deal with US or its European proxies. 

5. Crude Oil Price- still over $100.

6. Media - still dumb, under all those layers of makeup . 

No, nothing has changed. Cost of borrowing dollar has increased and Federal Reserve wants you to exercise caution,  that's what "Interest Rate Hike" means. 

If you go with the flow, your hands will be burned , if you are a human that is. Bots have no hands and can't even be burnt. 

So take care humans, this exuberant trade has no legs and don't sit on Bubbles mistaking it for a couch. Corrections will be coming in 24 hours or in 24 days. 

US is heading for recession and perhaps towards end of "Dollar Standard".

Wednesday, April 6, 2022

US recession coming?

 Deutsche Bank 

Deutsche Bank finally admitted "Global Bubble Building Industry" also known as "US Economy" will fall into recession in 2023, if US Federal Reserve goes with interest rate hikes this year.

Another way to put it forward is, the Recession of 2008 which has been brushed under the carpet with the ponzi scheme of unreal degrees of Low interest rates worldwide (Led by US Fed of course) will resurface and vulnerable yet giant banks like Deutsche Bank will end belly up.  Yet this interpretation of their forecast will not appear In news magazine,  but it is the truth.  US recession would mean severe stress in Global and specially European banks and in current Geopolitical scenario, I don't think China will be too eager to buy Western debt . So Eurozone will fall into recession and all Western economy will be busy in bailing out their Billionaire and Bankers.

 How about Japan, India and Australia? They always make huge "Foreign Policy Statements" .. Will they not buy Western papers and save them from recession.. Well, Firstly their own debt situation are as worse as USA ... after all, they are satellite Economy of US and their central banks blindly follow US Fed, whatever US based "Thinktanks" telegraph to them, their central Banks follow that.

Add to that, current war in Ukraine,  sanctions on USSR , oops , I meant Russia and lack of trade deal with China.. this means Inflation is going to remain high in throughout 2022-23. Forget what deaf and dumb Economists of IMF and World Bank, Global economy will have Stagflation this year. 

Only Tool left with "Central Bankers" is to raise "Interest Rates" to combat "Inflation" , but that will make "Too Big to fail" banks FAIL . That's what Deutsche Bank is pleading to US Fed, in a subtle way.

I'm thinking a "Global Depression" is more likely. So careful there.. out in the Market place.