Failure of Copenhagen & Obama-ism

Thanks to CNN-IBN for posting the 7 page pdf, actually it has a single cover page, 2.5 pages of text and 3 pages for empty wishlist.

The (by now) infamous paragraph of 2 degree temperature change, states that signatories "would enhance long-term cooperative action to combat climate change". What would you enhance upon my dear, you have not even met the kyoto accord?

No timeline mentioned in that para and no need for inspection regime.

Lets come down to the next paragraph, this talks about need to cut emissions to go to 50% percent. This is a reiteration but that point is used to side-step the peaking year issue.

Next paragraph talks about adapting to changed climate and developed nations would help without specifying any pledge.

I hate to say this document don't even qualify as a declaration.

We were one step up and this has taken two steps back.

Fossil fuel industry wins again, Obama is nothing but a show-boat.

Obama's actions have proved him to be as pro-oil as a Neo-con.

Who is affected by climate change in india

The elite is most environment insensitive in India. You need to explain to the commoner that what are the ill-effects of climate change. Frequent cyclones, irregular monsoon, crop failure, water scarcity, yield reduction these are common mans problem. The food price inflation is triggered in 2009 by climate change.

Media and commoners are thinking sea-rise will trigger a tsunami, but in reality it will get worse day by day and very slowly and without any drama.

Glaciers wont disappear overnight, some times won't even recede very dramatically, but a glacial lake burst can wipe out thousands in a day (very much like Bihar 2008 floods which was triggered by bursting of a dam).

The poor is being effected the most, while sick bureaucrats hassle over Intensity cut or per capita reduction.The people in Mumbai who are facing a tough time in getting tap water are direct victims of climate change. All fisherman who live by the vast coastline are being affected by climate change. And yes, all of you who find Pulses (Daal) costly are victims of climate change.

Indian Stand on Copenhapen summit

I have heard Mr. Jairam Ramesh at Loksabha on CNN-IBN. It's comforting to note that, he understands the upcoming problems. He has raised 4 important points in his speech (all of them are in my top 10 problem list) and he even sounded sincere.

But our agreed stand across political spectrum will not help India or the environment. Lets get our non-negotiable:

1. The treaty can not be "Legally binding". Why folks want a "legally binding" treaty because it has been a common experience that promises made earlier has rarely been kept. You might get 250 different excuses in every summit.

2. A carbon intensity cut of 20%-25% is not good enough, its emission / gdp as the good minister explained. Well if a country get higher Paper GDP (there are various instruments like ignoring inflation, boosting low-carbon-footprint & low-employment-intensive services etc etc), then you get a better carbon intensity score. Even if you fail the target, you can blame it on recession, downturn etc etc. As we know the present economic dream team is drooling over a foolish expectation of double digit growth in at least 7-8 times in next 11 years. In 2020 they will tell you, "Well, Ramesh you done exceeding well,but it is the economy that failed us".

My Dear Minister, Please understand ENVIRONMENT & NATURE does not give a damn about PER CAPITA OR GDP Figures. It works on simple laws of Physics (With out bothering whether you call it science or vigyan).

If we leave a healthy environment for next generation, they will be able to have a healthy economy anyway. Remember Economy & Society have a longer history than Economics. So don't let experts confuse you, do the right thing and revise your/our stand.

Phyan landfall

This was the position of Phyan at 1pm , landfall started.

This was the position of Phyan at 2pm , landfall very much on .

Phyan at 3 pm IST. All screenshots taken from CIMSS Tropical cyclone sites. Well done guys.

Democracy decays without people's vigilance

In India Every MP (Member of Parliament) is given Rs. 2 crore (Usually released in 2 equal parts) but nobody is using any of of it. Thanks to RTI (Right To Information Act which is very new in India) and mplads.nic.in (A website where MPs Local Area Development funds allocation and usage is shown for the public) we now know who is using how much? Visit the web-site and you will find that although 1 crore has been released to almost all MPs (for spending in 6 months in the field of Local Area Development), no body has allocated any funds for any purpose.

The "Released/Expenditure" webpage is beautifully broken up in several statements, Click on "Released/Expenditure State-wise Details for 15th Lok Sabha MPs" and enter the amazing world of inactive MPs. Going by the election promises, I was expecting that they might have expended the whole amount in weeks. Add to that; The promise of using these funds for helping drought affected rural population.

The report has columns like :

• Entitlement of Constituency(Rs.Crore)
• Released by G.O.I.(Rs.Crore)
• Amount available with interest (Rs.Crore)
• Amount Recommended (Rs.Crore)
• Amount Sanctioned(Rs.Crore)
• Expenditure Incurred (Rs.Crore)
• Percent of Utilisation Over Released
• Unspent Balance(Rs.Crore)

You would find 2.00 in first column, 1.00 in 2nd, 3rd column and 1.0 in last column.

At a first glimpse it would look like the page has not been updated.

But thanks to the following MPs (Yes. I can name them all, they are that few) who have some other values (utilization etc) against them.

• Harsimrat Kaur Badal-BHATINDA-Punjab
• Kavuri Sambasiva Rao -ELURU-AP
• Mohammad Asrarul Haque-KISHANGANJ-Bihar

Couple of MPs have recommended but utilization not yet reported:

Ganeshrao Nagorao Dudhgaonkar -PARBHANI -Maharashtra

and

Guddu Premchand UJJAIN(SC)-Madya Pradesh

Out of 543 MPs, 3 could show some progress and 2 more can show some allocation. Debating the proper usage is a far cry kind of scenario as they don't even report to the authorities.

A clear show of utter disrespect to the concept of being accountable to the people.

Is this height of Mal-governance? Does n't this prove, Democracy decays without people's vigilance

Recovery is on, but only for the SUPER-RICH

Most Wall Street Banks will be reporting in green for last quarter only because speculation and insider trading has lifted the stock markets to artificial highs. If you calculated the stocks and derivatives at an average price of last 3 quarters, they will end up in red.

Why the recovery isn't actually as impressive as finance experts says, Lets investigate:

1. The manufacturing sectors came out from their previous loss making time, only by slashing workforce and reducing prices. The retail segment is doing the same. This means consumer has less amount to spend (rather the theory of Americans have started saving huge amount in their socks or under their pillow).

2. So the so called "Recovered Economy" has a far less consumer base to start with. With job losses continuing and people who are without a job for 12 months no longer counted on neither as Jobless nor as Employed, there is no immediate chance of major expansion in that base. The consumer confidence data and retail sales figure shows that.

3. Banks have become smarter since Enron, they don't cook up their books directly, instead they influence market to inflate their asset class. In old days, doing this in stock market could have landed one jail for Insider Trading.

Be careful and take Analysts upgrade news with a pinch of salt. Recovery is on, but only for the super-rich ( The too big to fail category), too bad if you are not in it.

Read roubini's warning on Next Bubble at http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257791/

Are we doing well or not?:The lie of the Recovery

Are we doing well or not? These are merely matters in human perception. We indulge in statistical studies, check econometric indices and ultimately depend on third party opinions about our economy, our society and our lives.

Most often or not, Media and Government plays a crucial part. Take the example of the current recovery which started with leaking of Citibank and BoA CEO's optimistic internal memo about operational profits.

Since then, Gamblers has taken the center-stage in the financial world. All stock markets rebounded to new highs as if a new energy source has been invented or a mineral-rich highly fertile continent has been discovered. What boasted the market is that the rich has found ways and means to corrupt each and every-one of G-20 governments.

The rich may be from Manhattan, Monaco or Mumbai, they were pleasantly surprised to find that all politicians worldwide want to power and wealth, not for their country, not for the society they promised to serve; but for themselves.

So US,Western Europe, Russia, India & China reels under severe unemployment. Brazil is the only exception, because its president is a rare exception.

While US and Western Europe gives a technically correct (not morally correct or real) data on unemployment, India & China gives none what to ever. Money keeps floating to and fro between Tax heavens and Stock or commodity markets. Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman call for Simplified products and services went to deaf ears. Derivatives is still the king and this time around the complexity of the lie is much more. This time the governments are hand in glove with these economic terrorists (who run these too big to fail organizations).

From October 2009, a bunch of godforsaken analysts will start jumping up and down (or they will lose their jobs) singing joy in YoY figures, please remember that the base on which these matrices/ parameters are calculated were plummeting same time last year. The First case in Indian IIP (Index of industrial production) figures of August 2009. Every analyst conveniently forgot that IIP blipped August, last year. And the stock market soared.

Economic Recovery means improvement of life of all, by all and for all. And that my dear friend is not the case now.

I am playing Citizen Kane on Gandhi Birthday

The deceit from the Indian governments are turning unbearable, their cover-up of the real issues is a total contempt of our individual and collective intellect. The think we are fools and our foolishness is directly proportional to our everyday misery.
To prove that they are wrong, "I am playing Citizen Kane on Gandhi Birthday"

In a reply to ibnlive report on closing of Bofors case, I have chalked out my game-plan, it will be a classical gandhi-style "Fast unto Death".

The idea of Justice keeps eluding the political class ( I am deeply ashamed by this term coinage, which implies that rest of self-acclaimed educated population ); no government can wash off its hands to provide Justice and level-playing ground for all Indians. The biggest obstacle to such noble goals is corruption and public apathy to do anything about it.

"We are so few, so powerless", this has been commoners only shield and refuge.

The Bofors case is as important as Jessica lal case, because if the corrupt goes scott-free, then the honest will be punished and persecutedfor not being corrupt. It seems the Congress government thinks AE Services are front for somebody other than Dr. Q, then they must start another investigation to prove that. Till that proof comes up the cases against the evil Dr. Q must continue.

CBI's neutrality is as important as supreme court's, that can not beharmed in any way. But what can I do about it? I am just a commoner. I am going to play a game called "Citizen Kane" or "Main Azad Hoon" in Gandhian style. On Oct 2, 2009;

I would start a fast unto death till

a) bofors cases are reopened with utmost sincerity and

b) Ministry of finance starts a fortnightly unified consumer price index.

Remember "Koi bhi Desh Perfect Nahin Hota,Usey Perfect Banana parta hain" (Rang de Basanti)

Indian Health Minister Must Resign

The Health Minister of India must resign.
Reason no 1: He is insensitive to the suffering of the people.
Reason no 2: His communication skills are deplorable, it may be great for Politics but the idioms used by him is not befitting of a Union Cabinet Minister.
Reason no 3: He has no clue what an infectious disease is and what leads to epidemic. Otherwise He would have stopped his senior officials from comparing Cancer, Malaria with Flu pandemic.
Reason no 4: The swine flu portal of his ministry is static and reflects their preparedness and their senseless guidelines would help the virus and its mutants more than people of India.
Reason no 5: If his grand opinion about swine flu was true, why is US FDA using the vaccine trial in Fast track mode; If the virus is so mild, why is US CDC and WHO calling it a race against time.
Reason no 6: If Government facilities are taken so nice care of the procedures, how come no protein sequence made it to the H1N1 flu database. Our only submissions are from 2005 pandharpur spread of H1N1 by National Institute of Virology, Pune. So Pune has many experts in the city, why Mr. Azad chose the AIIMS doctors and the secretary to plan and brief the public.
Reason no 7: Why should PMO look after Tamiflu stocks, when you have 3 Ministers in MOHFW? The stockpile is planned at ten million tablets, which is impractical? Mr. Azad has failed to prepare a reasonable preparedness plan. The Section “Preparedness and Response-India not affected” of the current plan covers 13 and half pages. The section about India being affected covers the responsibilities of other constitutional bodies only practical and scientific content is to be found in “5.4.7.Dead body handling & disposal”.
All other sections of the document talks about nonsense of what other people should do.
Reason no 8: His apology is too little too late.

Droughts in India to worsen with climate change -- study

So it not just me, lots of scientists are saying it too:
In a study published in the May 15 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, Chul Eddy Chung and V. Ramanathan of Scripps Oceanography say that cooler-than-normal temperatures in the northern part of the Indian ocean have weakened the region's natural climate circulation and monsoon conditions, resulting in reduced rainfall over India and increased rainfall over the Sahel area south of the Sahara in Africa.

Droughts in India to worsen with climate change -- study

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Stupid Indian Media Outlook

The Indian media has done it again. Just because the local correspondent forgot the umbrella and got drenched they are calling the drought is over.
Fact is that one spell of 24 hour depression does not make a healthy Indian monsoon and that is beyond their capacity of comprehension.
Fact is Indian media person has no or little knowledge of satellite imagery or space science nor general meteorology and of course they don't care to know how agriculture works. For them food is produced by supermarket shelves and kitchens.
Most politicians were just waking up to the climate change and at least to this years' Monsoon conditions and in comes media men clad in their all pervasive ignorance; making a joke out of governments drought relief efforts.

Climate Change is just changing gear - watch out

Check out the IMD map, the rainfall deficiency is at 19% and that my dear is Normal by IMD standard. We must make peoples movement stronger. Our agriculture Minister had said there are 13 months of grain stock, then why do you find the prices of all pulses, rice prices going up. What about vegetables, lack of fresh vegetables will lower the immunity level and with swine flu and avian flu present in the habitat, the chance of a flu epidemic in November can not be ruled out.
We are living in a time,when having a foresight can drive you nuts. Where are models of IMD guys? why are they saying nothing about early withdrawal of Monsoon. Every publicly posted model are saying August rain will be weak. Thats good news for orissa and saurastra but real bad news for rest of India.

Met. Zone	Terrain	Normal Rainfall	Actual Rainfall	% Change
Coastal Karnataka	Coastal Plain	1763.9	1866.6	5.82
Konkan & Goa	Coastal Plain	1442.3	1431	-0.78
Kerala	Coastal Plain	1246	1260.1	1.13
Orissa	Coastal Plain	453.1	661.5	45.99
Saurashtra & kautch + Diu	Coastal Plain	226.2	339.1	49.91
Coastal A.P.	Coastal Plain	207	143	-30.92
Tamil Nadu & Pondi.	Coastal Plain	89.2	76.8	-13.90
	Coastal Plain Total	5427.7	5778.1	6.46
Gangetic W.B.	Grain bowl	465.6	273.3	-41.30
Bihar	Grain bowl	419.4	150.6	-64.09
East UP	Grain bowl	330.1	139.9	-57.62
West UP	Grain bowl	253.2	105.5	-58.33
Punjab	Grain bowl	171.9	87.8	-48.92
Har., Chd & Delhi	Grain bowl	163.7	58.1	-64.51
	Grain bowl Total	1803.9	815.2	-54.81
Assam & Meghalaya	H.Plains & plateau	975.1	532.4	-45.40
	H.Plains & plateau Total	975.1	532.4
Sikkim Him. WB	Himalayan	918.9	627	-31.77
Arunachal Pradesh	Himalayan	912.1	637.6	-30.10
N.M.M.T.	Himalayan	607	326	-46.29
Uttarakhand	Himalayan	456.4	263	-42.38
HP	Himalayan	281.7	132.3	-53.04
Jammu & Kashmir	Himalayan	178.1	142	-20.27
	Himalayan Total	3354.2	2127.9	-36.56
A & N Islands	Islands	680.5	727.2	6.86
Lakshadweep	Islands	524.2	687.1	31.08
	Islands Total	1204.7	1414.3	17.40
E. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	216.2	200	-7.49
N. I. Karnataka	Low rainfall	182.6	191.8	5.04
Rayalaseema	Low rainfall	117.9	78.6	-33.33
W. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	98.5	82.7	-16.04
	Low rainfall Total	615.2	553.1	-10.09
Chattisgarh	Plateau & Plains	467	431.2	-7.67
Jharkhand	Plateau & Plains	432	252.6	-41.53
Vidarbha	Plateau & Plains	402.2	361.1	-10.22
East MP	Plateau & Plains	406.6	353.7	-13.01
Inner Gujarat & Daman	Plateau & Plains	378.8	295.3	-22.04
Madhya Maharashtra	Plateau & Plains	308.3	303.4	-1.59
West MP	Plateau & Plains	316.3	293.1	-7.33
S. I. Karnataka	Plateau & Plains	296.7	395.8	33.40
Telangana	Plateau & Plains	293	171.6	-41.43
Marathwada	Plateau & Plains	265.1	199.8	-24.63
	Plateau & Plains Total	3566	3057.6	-14.26
	Grand Total	16946.8	14278.6

Advisory to politicians:
So Mr. Sharad Powar, now is the time to pass on the reserve grains to the people.
Mr. Manmohan Singh & Mr Pranab Mukherjee look into real india and see that food distribution has no logistical problem.
The prices are already way too high for poor and common people, if you don't want law and order situation not to deteorate then ensure food for all. Surely you don't want food riots like Haiti.

Monsoon Update Analysed

Watching 15th July Monsoon rainfall status image above, you may be tricked into thinking Monsoon has picked up pace and shall be normal, but the reality is far from the colored map released by IMD.
I don't know what weights they give to which segment, but Indian Meteorological Zones can grossly segmented into following zones based on terrains and geographical locations:

1. Himalayan Terrain : Rainfall here is important as it feeds the rivers of North India.
2. Northern Plains or the Grain Bowl: Deficiency is up to 55% (without fancy weights).
3. Coastal Plains: Rain has been excellent here but the agricultural produces of these zones are not that great.
4. Plateau & Plains: Rained better only on a rainy day.
5. Islands: They won't have water shortages this year.
6. Low Rainfall zones: Rajastan and some places on the wrong sides of the Western ghat mountains.
7. Assam & Meghalaya: This zone has hills, plateaus and mighty bhramaputa runs through its plains too, Tea plantation hub.

So I don't agree with met office a single bit on Monsoon prediction, the fact is monsoon is consistent below 2oth parallel and its not miserable on the places above it. The reason is, the missing arm of monsoon which came through Bay of Bengal.

Meteorological Zone	Terrain	Normal Rainfall	Actual Rainfall	% Change
Coastal Karnataka	Coastal Plain	1474.9	1520.4	3.09
Konkan & Goa	Coastal Plain	1206.5	1145.2	-5.08
Kerala	Coastal Plain	1080.7	908.3	-15.95
Orissa	Coastal Plain	373.4	446.6	19.60
Saurashtra kautch + Diu	Coastal Plain	179.9	181.9	1.11
Coastal A.P.	Coastal Plain	170.7	118.8	-30.40
Tamil Nadu Pondi.	Coastal Plain	72.9	59	-19.07
	Coastal Plain Total	4559	4380.2	-3.92
Gangetic W.B.	Grain bowl	392.2	210.3	-46.38
Bihar	Grain bowl	340	127.5	-62.50
East UP	Grain bowl	249.1	110	-55.84
West UP	Grain bowl	191.5	75.7	-60.47
Punjab	Grain bowl	127.5	56.2	-55.92
Har., Chd & Delhi	Grain bowl	122.4	49.9	-59.23
	Grain bowl Total	1422.7	629.6	-55.75
Assam & Meghalaya	H.Plains & plateau	853.9	488.1	-42.84
	H.Plains & plateau Total	853.9	488.1
Sikkim Him. WB	Himalayan	790.5	579	-26.76
Arunachal Pradesh	Himalayan	769.9	587	-23.76
N.M.M.T.	Himalayan	531.9	294.8	-44.57
Uttarakhand	Himalayan	359.4	153.3	-57.35
HP	Himalayan	209.7	86.8	-58.61
Jammu & Kashmir	Himalayan	130.4	101.9	-21.86
	Himalayan Total	2791.8	1802.8	-35.43
A & N Islands	Islands	680.5	727.2	6.86
Lakshadweep	Islands	458.7	637.2	38.91
	Islands Total	1139.2	1364.4	19.77
E. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	157.7	116.4	-26.19
N. I. Karnataka	Low rainfall	152.1	166.6	9.53
Rayalaseema	Low rainfall	95.6	75.8	-20.71
W. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	72.1	60.1	-16.64
	Low rainfall Total	477.5	418.9	-12.27
Chattisgarh	Plateau & Plains	378.3	306.5	-18.97
Jharkhand	Plateau & Plains	353	212.3	-39.86
Vidarbha	Plateau & Plains	331.9	275.5	-16.99
East MP	Plateau & Plains	323.3	218.9	-32.29
Inner Gujarat &Daman	Plateau & Plains	304.1	152.2	-49.95
Madhya Maharashtra	Plateau & Plains	254.1	220.8	-13.11
West MP	Plateau & Plains	247.9	169.3	-31.71
S. I. Karnataka	Plateau & Plains	246.5	269	9.13
Telangana	Plateau & Plains	234.7	141.8	-39.58
Marathwada	Plateau & Plains	220.5	166.1	-24.67
	Plateau & Plains Total	2894.3	2132.4	-26.32
	Grand Total	14138.4	11216.4

Effects to Agriculture:
1. Drastic fall is rice and other grain production.
2. Tea production of lower quality and quantity.
3. Hyper-inflation to be seen in food indices in next 6 months.