Saturday, January 30, 2010

Thanks James Gosling, Sun & Java

Dear James,

My last 13 years of interest in serious computing in java notwithstanding, lets talk economics for a while.

Sun has been single handed biggest generator of jobs (not 4 the brain dead) through its patronage of java and its servers, which basically expedited the reach of internet as many of newbies know it. But the fact remained, Wall street never loved Sun Microsystems. After all, the world belongs to Wall Street.

Strangely, nobody talks about Consumer Interest or Job losses when it comes to mergers & acquisitions by super-heavyweights (Bob Dylan would have said, "You never ask questions with God on your side"). Oracle was a good database company, nothing more. For last 3 years, they were buying rivals as if they have some obligation to use up spouse credit card, before filing 4 a divorce. And no one complained.

Tennessee Williams would have said, "Careful Larry, your claws are showing".

No wonder California will have double digit unemployment (it will take half an hour to prove that, not trying here and now).I see Oracle being broken up in 3-5 years (after the depression that is) to create 3 different companies. Look at GM now, they were doing the same act in 2000-2005. They are selling SAAB now.

Being Big is not the answer, Being great is. So hang it tight.

Although what Java and Sun has done for me can not be explained in few words, but let me sum up saying:
"We had joy, we had fun, we had seasons in the sun.
But the hills that we climbed
were just seasons out of time."

Shuvankar Mukherjee
Founder Member of JUG,
Java Magic On Calcutta (1999 - 2002)

Friday, January 29, 2010

Asia fails to cheer, West grins

Dr. Do-little Barnanke got the investor community bubbling up, all over again. Markets started bouncing back since the European morning. It seems the great trade cycle revolves twice everyday.
Although Dow-Jones did not react to the re-appointment of Dr. Do-little (The principal architect of Recession & subsequent bailout), stock markets picked-up from 10am GMT. Great coordination by speculators across continents.
Nobody cares about rising unemployment across the globe.

Obaba speech loses shine; stocks tumble

Obama Speech Effect has been shrugged off by world market. It lasted a total of 4-5 hours in the world. Then stocks plunged worldwide.

Since Speculative Securities trade is the most cherished and weighed profession, January results will be a dampener for growth of global economy (if any such thing exists). As the hawks of Davos are contemplating, whether there will be a double dip in the recession, the economies all across the globe are heading towards the second dip of the great recession ( We will wait till 2011 for the Depression coinage). This July at least 7 out of G-20s will be back in recession (based on Q2 GDP) and another 8 will plunge by Q3 results.

Bad news, indeed; But if we continue to re-select Dr. Dangerous Bernanke over and over again, what else would you expect. One who never stopped the easy credit for stupid housing, bailed out his super buddy banks and insurance companies and yes; Gave us the “Too big to fail” connotation to big business.

There would be a barrage of JVs launched by Davos-returnee crooks, beware and stay out of it. There would be a spate of Merger & acquisitions by Davos-returnees as well, mostly across distant geographies. It is the task of the governments to ensure that both local consumer interest and local workforce interests are given primary importance. Governments must discourage further job-losses and place punitive strictures in place to prevent such efforts by big business.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Obama speech review

Obama has got it wrong in the President’s speech. The state of the nation speech has been a stage the Presidents are supposed to be populist and they had even lied outright, Remember George W. Bush.

Obama simply toed the line. Let’s bust his theories one by one:

Theory No 1:

China is not waiting for USA to grow.

To tell you the fact based on GDP figures China had never in recession. China had a double digit GDP growth under super low interest rates. Commonsense economics says if it is not sustainable on a long run, then interest rates must go up to prevent the overheating of the economy. But so far China has only hinted an interest rate hike and not tightened it.

So how can China grow at this rate even at this rate? It has a single window for clearing projects, addressing concerns and disputes when it comes to “Modernization & Industrialization”. Without being concerned about health hazard, labor problems and destruction of environment, American investors go hunky dory on investing in China and dump Detroit by the sideline.

China need not depend on USA as US$ is freely available to the Chinese government through Wall Street investment bankers. Besides they have worlds biggest US$ reserves as well.

Theory No 2:

Germany is not waiting for USA to grow.

In fact German exports to USA are completely on shaky grounds, as the consumer base in USA shrinks, so does German need to produce more. Germany never had a local. Economic problem, this was all USA’s fault.

Theory No 3:

India is not waiting for USA.

Man! Please buy Obama a TV with lots of good channels preloaded.

Ever since Obama’s angry speech after Brown’s speech; Indian stock markets has lost 9% of its value. Ever since Obama has spoken and declared “Worst of the storm has passed”, nearly 3% of market capital revived; by day end it should reclaim 6%; by week end it might be even more than 10% as American banks put their money back in so called “Emerging markets”.

Obama wanted to halt the tumbling dominos of major stock markets and by the look of it, he has been successful. So what’s in it for ordinary Americans besides the consolation that trading is still done in USD.