Thursday, July 30, 2009

Droughts in India to worsen with climate change -- study

So it not just me, lots of scientists are saying it too:
In a study published in the May 15 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, Chul Eddy Chung and V. Ramanathan of Scripps Oceanography say that cooler-than-normal temperatures in the northern part of the Indian ocean have weakened the region's natural climate circulation and monsoon conditions, resulting in reduced rainfall over India and increased rainfall over the Sahel area south of the Sahara in Africa.

Droughts in India to worsen with climate change -- study

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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Stupid Indian Media Outlook

The Indian media has done it again. Just because the local correspondent forgot the umbrella and got drenched they are calling the drought is over.
Fact is that one spell of 24 hour depression does not make a healthy Indian monsoon and that is beyond their capacity of comprehension.
Fact is Indian media person has no or little knowledge of satellite imagery or space science nor general meteorology and of course they don't care to know how agriculture works. For them food is produced by supermarket shelves and kitchens.
Most politicians were just waking up to the climate change and at least to this years' Monsoon conditions and in comes media men clad in their all pervasive ignorance; making a joke out of governments drought relief efforts.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Climate Change is just changing gear - watch out

Check out the IMD map, the rainfall deficiency is at 19% and that my dear is Normal by IMD standard. We must make peoples movement stronger. Our agriculture Minister had said there are 13 months of grain stock, then why do you find the prices of all pulses, rice prices going up. What about vegetables, lack of fresh vegetables will lower the immunity level and with swine flu and avian flu present in the habitat, the chance of a flu epidemic in November can not be ruled out.
We are living in a time,when having a foresight can drive you nuts. Where are models of IMD guys? why are they saying nothing about early withdrawal of Monsoon. Every publicly posted model are saying August rain will be weak. Thats good news for orissa and saurastra but real bad news for rest of India.

Met. Zone Terrain Normal Rainfall Actual Rainfall % Change
Coastal Karnataka Coastal Plain 1763.9 1866.6 5.82
Konkan & Goa Coastal Plain 1442.3 1431 -0.78
Kerala Coastal Plain 1246 1260.1 1.13
Orissa Coastal Plain 453.1 661.5 45.99
Saurashtra & kautch
+ Diu
Coastal Plain 226.2 339.1 49.91
Coastal A.P. Coastal Plain 207 143 -30.92
Tamil Nadu & Pondi. Coastal Plain 89.2 76.8 -13.90
Coastal Plain Total 5427.7 5778.1 6.46
Gangetic W.B. Grain bowl 465.6 273.3 -41.30
Bihar Grain bowl 419.4 150.6 -64.09
East UP Grain bowl 330.1 139.9 -57.62
West UP Grain bowl 253.2 105.5 -58.33
Punjab Grain bowl 171.9 87.8 -48.92
Har., Chd & Delhi Grain bowl 163.7 58.1 -64.51
Grain bowl Total 1803.9 815.2 -54.81
Assam & Meghalaya H.Plains & plateau 975.1 532.4 -45.40
H.Plains & plateau Total 975.1 532.4
Sikkim Him. WB Himalayan 918.9 627 -31.77
Arunachal Pradesh Himalayan 912.1 637.6 -30.10
N.M.M.T. Himalayan 607 326 -46.29
Uttarakhand Himalayan 456.4 263 -42.38
HP Himalayan 281.7 132.3 -53.04
Jammu & Kashmir Himalayan 178.1 142 -20.27
Himalayan Total 3354.2 2127.9 -36.56
A & N Islands Islands 680.5 727.2 6.86
Lakshadweep Islands 524.2 687.1 31.08
Islands Total 1204.7 1414.3 17.40
E. Rajasthan Low rainfall 216.2 200 -7.49
N. I. Karnataka Low rainfall 182.6 191.8 5.04
Rayalaseema Low rainfall 117.9 78.6 -33.33
W. Rajasthan Low rainfall 98.5 82.7 -16.04
Low rainfall Total 615.2 553.1 -10.09
Chattisgarh Plateau & Plains 467 431.2 -7.67
Jharkhand Plateau & Plains 432 252.6 -41.53
Vidarbha Plateau & Plains 402.2 361.1 -10.22
East MP Plateau & Plains 406.6 353.7 -13.01
Inner Gujarat & Daman Plateau & Plains 378.8 295.3 -22.04
Madhya Maharashtra Plateau & Plains 308.3 303.4 -1.59
West MP Plateau & Plains 316.3 293.1 -7.33
S. I. Karnataka Plateau & Plains 296.7 395.8 33.40
Telangana Plateau & Plains 293 171.6 -41.43
Marathwada Plateau & Plains 265.1 199.8 -24.63
Plateau & Plains Total 3566 3057.6 -14.26
Grand Total 16946.8 14278.6

Advisory to politicians:
So Mr. Sharad Powar, now is the time to pass on the reserve grains to the people.
Mr. Manmohan Singh & Mr Pranab Mukherjee look into real india and see that food distribution has no logistical problem.
The prices are already way too high for poor and common people, if you don't want law and order situation not to deteorate then ensure food for all. Surely you don't want food riots like Haiti.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Monsoon Update Analysed

Watching 15th July Monsoon rainfall status image above, you may be tricked into thinking Monsoon has picked up pace and shall be normal, but the reality is far from the colored map released by IMD.
I don't know what weights they give to which segment, but Indian Meteorological Zones can grossly segmented into following zones based on terrains and geographical locations:
  1. Himalayan Terrain : Rainfall here is important as it feeds the rivers of North India.
  2. Northern Plains or the Grain Bowl: Deficiency is up to 55% (without fancy weights).
  3. Coastal Plains: Rain has been excellent here but the agricultural produces of these zones are not that great.
  4. Plateau & Plains: Rained better only on a rainy day.
  5. Islands: They won't have water shortages this year.
  6. Low Rainfall zones: Rajastan and some places on the wrong sides of the Western ghat mountains.
  7. Assam & Meghalaya: This zone has hills, plateaus and mighty bhramaputa runs through its plains too, Tea plantation hub.

So I don't agree with met office a single bit on Monsoon prediction, the fact is monsoon is consistent below 2oth parallel and its not miserable on the places above it. The reason is, the missing arm of monsoon which came through Bay of Bengal.

Meteorological ZoneTerrainNormal RainfallActual Rainfall% Change
Coastal KarnatakaCoastal Plain1474.91520.43.09
Konkan & GoaCoastal Plain1206.51145.2-5.08
KeralaCoastal Plain1080.7908.3-15.95
OrissaCoastal Plain373.4446.619.60
Saurashtra kautch + DiuCoastal Plain179.9181.91.11
Coastal A.P.Coastal Plain170.7118.8-30.40
Tamil Nadu Pondi.Coastal Plain72.959-19.07
 Coastal Plain Total45594380.2-3.92
Gangetic W.B.Grain bowl392.2210.3-46.38
Bihar Grain bowl340127.5-62.50
East UPGrain bowl249.1110-55.84
West UPGrain bowl191.575.7-60.47
PunjabGrain bowl127.556.2-55.92
Har., Chd & DelhiGrain bowl122.449.9-59.23
 Grain bowl Total1422.7629.6-55.75
Assam & MeghalayaH.Plains & plateau853.9488.1-42.84
 H.Plains & plateau Total853.9488.1
Sikkim Him. WBHimalayan790.5579-26.76
Arunachal PradeshHimalayan769.9587-23.76
Jammu & KashmirHimalayan130.4101.9-21.86
 Himalayan Total2791.81802.8-35.43
A & N IslandsIslands680.5727.26.86
 Islands Total1139.21364.419.77
E. RajasthanLow rainfall157.7116.4-26.19
N. I. KarnatakaLow rainfall152.1166.69.53
RayalaseemaLow rainfall95.675.8-20.71
W. RajasthanLow rainfall72.160.1-16.64
 Low rainfall Total477.5418.9-12.27
ChattisgarhPlateau & Plains378.3306.5-18.97
JharkhandPlateau & Plains353212.3-39.86
VidarbhaPlateau & Plains331.9275.5-16.99
East MPPlateau & Plains323.3218.9-32.29
Inner Gujarat &DamanPlateau & Plains304.1152.2-49.95
Madhya MaharashtraPlateau & Plains254.1220.8-13.11
West MPPlateau & Plains247.9169.3-31.71
S. I. KarnatakaPlateau & Plains246.52699.13
TelanganaPlateau & Plains234.7141.8-39.58
MarathwadaPlateau & Plains220.5166.1-24.67
 Plateau & Plains Total2894.32132.4-26.32
 Grand Total14138.411216.4

Effects to Agriculture:
1. Drastic fall is rice and other grain production.
2. Tea production of lower quality and quantity.
3. Hyper-inflation to be seen in food indices in next 6 months.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Fraud in science: Liar! Liar! | The Economist

An amazing article came up on The Economist. A must read for all who take scientific data seriously.
Fraud in science: Liar! Liar! | The Economist

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Friday, July 10, 2009

Monsoon 2009

Every other politician like Mr. Sharad Pawar, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee has started giving meteorological forecast these days. The reality is depicted in the maps given above (source: Indian Met Office Website).
This is the rainfall map for 1st June to 8Th July.
So what FM claimed in NDTV interview, that Monsoon will make up with surplus rain in July.
Few points I need to mention over here:
1. Monsoon is a natural phenomenon (Sorry Its not on government payroll) and has no compulsion to fill up any deficits or to meet any target. It is only governed by many simple rules of physics.
2. If monsoon actually fills up the rainfall deficits upto now in next 14 days or so, the areas shown in red in the maps above will be flooded. This will bring more misery,not less.
3. This one is for all politicians:
You can not trade with nature for your survival, Just like a new born baby can not trade with the mother for the milk.