Friday, July 17, 2009

Monsoon Update Analysed

Watching 15th July Monsoon rainfall status image above, you may be tricked into thinking Monsoon has picked up pace and shall be normal, but the reality is far from the colored map released by IMD.
I don't know what weights they give to which segment, but Indian Meteorological Zones can grossly segmented into following zones based on terrains and geographical locations:
  1. Himalayan Terrain : Rainfall here is important as it feeds the rivers of North India.
  2. Northern Plains or the Grain Bowl: Deficiency is up to 55% (without fancy weights).
  3. Coastal Plains: Rain has been excellent here but the agricultural produces of these zones are not that great.
  4. Plateau & Plains: Rained better only on a rainy day.
  5. Islands: They won't have water shortages this year.
  6. Low Rainfall zones: Rajastan and some places on the wrong sides of the Western ghat mountains.
  7. Assam & Meghalaya: This zone has hills, plateaus and mighty bhramaputa runs through its plains too, Tea plantation hub.

So I don't agree with met office a single bit on Monsoon prediction, the fact is monsoon is consistent below 2oth parallel and its not miserable on the places above it. The reason is, the missing arm of monsoon which came through Bay of Bengal.

Meteorological ZoneTerrainNormal RainfallActual Rainfall% Change
Coastal KarnatakaCoastal Plain1474.91520.43.09
Konkan & GoaCoastal Plain1206.51145.2-5.08
KeralaCoastal Plain1080.7908.3-15.95
OrissaCoastal Plain373.4446.619.60
Saurashtra kautch + DiuCoastal Plain179.9181.91.11
Coastal A.P.Coastal Plain170.7118.8-30.40
Tamil Nadu Pondi.Coastal Plain72.959-19.07
 Coastal Plain Total45594380.2-3.92
Gangetic W.B.Grain bowl392.2210.3-46.38
Bihar Grain bowl340127.5-62.50
East UPGrain bowl249.1110-55.84
West UPGrain bowl191.575.7-60.47
PunjabGrain bowl127.556.2-55.92
Har., Chd & DelhiGrain bowl122.449.9-59.23
 Grain bowl Total1422.7629.6-55.75
Assam & MeghalayaH.Plains & plateau853.9488.1-42.84
 H.Plains & plateau Total853.9488.1
Sikkim Him. WBHimalayan790.5579-26.76
Arunachal PradeshHimalayan769.9587-23.76
Jammu & KashmirHimalayan130.4101.9-21.86
 Himalayan Total2791.81802.8-35.43
A & N IslandsIslands680.5727.26.86
 Islands Total1139.21364.419.77
E. RajasthanLow rainfall157.7116.4-26.19
N. I. KarnatakaLow rainfall152.1166.69.53
RayalaseemaLow rainfall95.675.8-20.71
W. RajasthanLow rainfall72.160.1-16.64
 Low rainfall Total477.5418.9-12.27
ChattisgarhPlateau & Plains378.3306.5-18.97
JharkhandPlateau & Plains353212.3-39.86
VidarbhaPlateau & Plains331.9275.5-16.99
East MPPlateau & Plains323.3218.9-32.29
Inner Gujarat &DamanPlateau & Plains304.1152.2-49.95
Madhya MaharashtraPlateau & Plains254.1220.8-13.11
West MPPlateau & Plains247.9169.3-31.71
S. I. KarnatakaPlateau & Plains246.52699.13
TelanganaPlateau & Plains234.7141.8-39.58
MarathwadaPlateau & Plains220.5166.1-24.67
 Plateau & Plains Total2894.32132.4-26.32
 Grand Total14138.411216.4

Effects to Agriculture:
1. Drastic fall is rice and other grain production.
2. Tea production of lower quality and quantity.
3. Hyper-inflation to be seen in food indices in next 6 months.

No comments:

Post a Comment