Watching 15th July Monsoon rainfall status image above, you may be tricked into thinking Monsoon has picked up pace and shall be normal, but the reality is far from the colored map released by IMD.
I don't know what weights they give to which segment, but Indian Meteorological Zones can grossly segmented into following zones based on terrains and geographical locations:
- Himalayan Terrain : Rainfall here is important as it feeds the rivers of North India.
- Northern Plains or the Grain Bowl: Deficiency is up to 55% (without fancy weights).
- Coastal Plains: Rain has been excellent here but the agricultural produces of these zones are not that great.
- Plateau & Plains: Rained better only on a rainy day.
- Islands: They won't have water shortages this year.
- Low Rainfall zones: Rajastan and some places on the wrong sides of the Western ghat mountains.
- Assam & Meghalaya: This zone has hills, plateaus and mighty bhramaputa runs through its plains too, Tea plantation hub.
So I don't agree with met office a single bit on Monsoon prediction, the fact is monsoon is consistent below 2oth parallel and its not miserable on the places above it. The reason is, the missing arm of monsoon which came through Bay of Bengal.
|Meteorological Zone||Terrain||Normal Rainfall||Actual Rainfall||% Change|
|Coastal Karnataka||Coastal Plain||1474.9||1520.4||3.09|
|Konkan & Goa||Coastal Plain||1206.5||1145.2||-5.08|
|Saurashtra kautch + Diu||Coastal Plain||179.9||181.9||1.11|
|Coastal A.P.||Coastal Plain||170.7||118.8||-30.40|
|Tamil Nadu Pondi.||Coastal Plain||72.9||59||-19.07|
|Coastal Plain Total||4559||4380.2||-3.92|
|Gangetic W.B.||Grain bowl||392.2||210.3||-46.38|
|East UP||Grain bowl||249.1||110||-55.84|
|West UP||Grain bowl||191.5||75.7||-60.47|
|Har., Chd & Delhi||Grain bowl||122.4||49.9||-59.23|
|Grain bowl Total||1422.7||629.6||-55.75|
|Assam & Meghalaya||H.Plains & plateau||853.9||488.1||-42.84|
|H.Plains & plateau Total||853.9||488.1|
|Sikkim Him. WB||Himalayan||790.5||579||-26.76|
|Jammu & Kashmir||Himalayan||130.4||101.9||-21.86|
|A & N Islands||Islands||680.5||727.2||6.86|
|E. Rajasthan||Low rainfall||157.7||116.4||-26.19|
|N. I. Karnataka||Low rainfall||152.1||166.6||9.53|
|W. Rajasthan||Low rainfall||72.1||60.1||-16.64|
|Low rainfall Total||477.5||418.9||-12.27|
|Chattisgarh||Plateau & Plains||378.3||306.5||-18.97|
|Jharkhand||Plateau & Plains||353||212.3||-39.86|
|Vidarbha||Plateau & Plains||331.9||275.5||-16.99|
|East MP||Plateau & Plains||323.3||218.9||-32.29|
|Inner Gujarat &Daman||Plateau & Plains||304.1||152.2||-49.95|
|Madhya Maharashtra||Plateau & Plains||254.1||220.8||-13.11|
|West MP||Plateau & Plains||247.9||169.3||-31.71|
|S. I. Karnataka||Plateau & Plains||246.5||269||9.13|
|Telangana||Plateau & Plains||234.7||141.8||-39.58|
|Marathwada||Plateau & Plains||220.5||166.1||-24.67|
|Plateau & Plains Total||2894.3||2132.4||-26.32|
Effects to Agriculture:
1. Drastic fall is rice and other grain production.
2. Tea production of lower quality and quantity.
3. Hyper-inflation to be seen in food indices in next 6 months.