Sunday, December 14, 2008

Prediction of Next 3 crashes

IIP figure forecasts major shock waves in the economy. Our former finance minister would say it is only some numbers (As he said about Sensex). The fall in intermediate goods production means fundamentals was wavering. The November figures would be better only for Non-durable consumer goods but might not take it to September levels.
IT results of 3rd quarter will be a desaster and many SME's in IT and ITES will be wiped out. Major layoffs are already on the cards. Expect major FII outflow in the 3rd week of January. First Crash (Sensex around 7500 -7800).
February 2nd week (after poor Dec IIP data) second mini crash (Sensex around 6700-7200).
April - May 2009, official acknowledgement of poor Growth (0.6 to 3.2 Max).
I don't want to predict where sensex would be.
I sincerely hope I am wrong this time.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Lack of truth : Don't buy the 10 terrorist theory

We need the truth from investigative agencies and we are not getting that.The truth is there were more than 10 terrorists. I can prove that:according to the chronology depicted in the ndtv site there were 10 sites (and nobody disputes that).
Now the arithmatic given is, 4 went to Taj, after doing carnage at Leo's. 2 went to Nariman House, 2 went to Oberoi.
That means 4 places and 8 terrorists accounted for. We know there were 2 at CST.
We also know the only CST terrorists moved out,So only they did rest of the firing.
10:15 at Cama hospital
10:30 at Metro Cinema
10:50 at Girgaum chowpatty.
and there they had the final encounter.
Upto this all incidents are accounted for,but we are forgetting the Taxi blast at Ville parle at 9:55 and the incident at Wadi bunder at 10:45.
Therefore it is proved that there had to be more than 10 terrorists.

Bad news is: Are they still free or had they fled to Pakistan.
Please raise your voice against lack of transparency.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Economy of Denial and Cartels

Last year, in this blog I had screamed out loudly about global recession at the very first signs of bad fiscal practices and major slowdown in US housing market ( the only gold mine that we have been digging since 2003-2004).

Never the less, every company /organization had faith in the hedge funds and overseas investments and took the downturn as a momentary loss of inertia. In the field of Macro-economics inertia is most dangerous and can be attributed to 90% of economic downturn.

The malicious practice of hedging in large scale takes the eye of innovation and reality check on the real market. The manufacturers of real goods must produce new products which outperforms the best brand in the market. If any manufacturing organization condemns itself by looking for new and emerging market at the time, then they should not be in manufacturing space in the first (Try retail if yours is one such).

Every downturn in major labour intensive sectors such as Housing (Lets call it Construction please), Automobiles, Steel undoubtedly results in severe downturn in service sectors. Service giants of our times is the Financial sector (Banking, Stocks & Insurance). During the growth of 2004-2006 the financial sectors promoted hedging instruments, clubbed them with Security-based products and promoted credit beyond their means.

The noted economists of our times failed to anticipate the pitfalls of agressive retailing of financial products promoted by the banks. This products do not have any guaranteed asset value but were considered (and be carefull, are still being considered) as real assets of high value. This resulted high profits and great PE values for stocks. Things could go at this level as long as credit was available.

Now in india, which has the best performing fiscal market among BRIC countries. The RBI and state owned banks and LIC have been injecting funds in the stock market thoughout 2008. The Govt was in complete denial of economic reality, they kept saying the fundamentals are good and our internal demand is strong enough engine. They ignored the fact the blue-eyed segment of indian economy stays in the city and serves mostly the outside world. They ignored the fact that inflation in double digits hurts the rural and semi-urban population the most, and takes away their possible capital investment powers.

Now as we had more than 8% fall in manufacturing,we are looking are recession at our cards. Fixing the GDP number by ignoring major economic data like inflation will not be of any help.

Huge job losses are on the way, the service sectors are to be affected as well. So stay wise in these difficult times.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Come September

Hi all, as my last days come nearer, I have taken to blogging again.
It is befitting that I do this in september, A month that over the years defined my life. 16th of September is the birthday of my only true love whose happiness meant and still means everything to me. 23rd is the birthday of my elder brother who has been the rock of support for me and still takes care of me as if I am a little boy.

while 17th september is the day I lost my mother to cancer and 11th sept for 9/11; which dragged us back from Modern to Mediaval era.
Let's hope 15th will be remembered for a better reason.