Asia fails to cheer, West grins

Dr. Do-little Barnanke got the investor community bubbling up, all over again. Markets started bouncing back since the European morning. It seems the great trade cycle revolves twice everyday.

Although Dow-Jones did not react to the re-appointment of Dr. Do-little (The principal architect of Recession & subsequent bailout), stock markets picked-up from 10am GMT. Great coordination by speculators across continents.

Nobody cares about rising unemployment across the globe.

Obaba speech loses shine; stocks tumble

Obama Speech Effect has been shrugged off by world market. It lasted a total of 4-5 hours in the world. Then stocks plunged worldwide.

Since Speculative Securities trade is the most cherished and weighed profession, January results will be a dampener for growth of global economy (if any such thing exists). As the hawks of Davos are contemplating, whether there will be a double dip in the recession, the economies all across the globe are heading towards the second dip of the great recession ( We will wait till 2011 for the Depression coinage). This July at least 7 out of G-20s will be back in recession (based on Q2 GDP) and another 8 will plunge by Q3 results.

Bad news, indeed; But if we continue to re-select Dr. Dangerous Bernanke over and over again, what else would you expect. One who never stopped the easy credit for stupid housing, bailed out his super buddy banks and insurance companies and yes; Gave us the “Too big to fail” connotation to big business.

There would be a barrage of JVs launched by Davos-returnee crooks, beware and stay out of it. There would be a spate of Merger & acquisitions by Davos-returnees as well, mostly across distant geographies. It is the task of the governments to ensure that both local consumer interest and local workforce interests are given primary importance. Governments must discourage further job-losses and place punitive strictures in place to prevent such efforts by big business.

Obama speech review

Obama has got it wrong in the President’s speech. The state of the nation speech has been a stage the Presidents are supposed to be populist and they had even lied outright, Remember George W. Bush.

Obama simply toed the line. Let’s bust his theories one by one:

Theory No 1:

China is not waiting for USA to grow.

To tell you the fact based on GDP figures China had never in recession. China had a double digit GDP growth under super low interest rates. Commonsense economics says if it is not sustainable on a long run, then interest rates must go up to prevent the overheating of the economy. But so far China has only hinted an interest rate hike and not tightened it.

So how can China grow at this rate even at this rate? It has a single window for clearing projects, addressing concerns and disputes when it comes to “Modernization & Industrialization”. Without being concerned about health hazard, labor problems and destruction of environment, American investors go hunky dory on investing in China and dump Detroit by the sideline.

China need not depend on USA as US$ is freely available to the Chinese government through Wall Street investment bankers. Besides they have worlds biggest US$ reserves as well.

Theory No 2:

Germany is not waiting for USA to grow.

In fact German exports to USA are completely on shaky grounds, as the consumer base in USA shrinks, so does German need to produce more. Germany never had a local. Economic problem, this was all USA’s fault.

Theory No 3:

India is not waiting for USA.

Man! Please buy Obama a TV with lots of good channels preloaded.

Ever since Obama’s angry speech after Brown’s speech; Indian stock markets has lost 9% of its value. Ever since Obama has spoken and declared “Worst of the storm has passed”, nearly 3% of market capital revived; by day end it should reclaim 6%; by week end it might be even more than 10% as American banks put their money back in so called “Emerging markets”.

Obama wanted to halt the tumbling dominos of major stock markets and by the look of it, he has been successful. So what’s in it for ordinary Americans besides the consolation that trading is still done in USD.

Failure of Copenhagen & Obama-ism

Thanks to CNN-IBN for posting the 7 page pdf, actually it has a single cover page, 2.5 pages of text and 3 pages for empty wishlist.

The (by now) infamous paragraph of 2 degree temperature change, states that signatories "would enhance long-term cooperative action to combat climate change". What would you enhance upon my dear, you have not even met the kyoto accord?

No timeline mentioned in that para and no need for inspection regime.

Lets come down to the next paragraph, this talks about need to cut emissions to go to 50% percent. This is a reiteration but that point is used to side-step the peaking year issue.

Next paragraph talks about adapting to changed climate and developed nations would help without specifying any pledge.

I hate to say this document don't even qualify as a declaration.

We were one step up and this has taken two steps back.

Fossil fuel industry wins again, Obama is nothing but a show-boat.

Obama's actions have proved him to be as pro-oil as a Neo-con.

Who is affected by climate change in india

The elite is most environment insensitive in India. You need to explain to the commoner that what are the ill-effects of climate change. Frequent cyclones, irregular monsoon, crop failure, water scarcity, yield reduction these are common mans problem. The food price inflation is triggered in 2009 by climate change.

Media and commoners are thinking sea-rise will trigger a tsunami, but in reality it will get worse day by day and very slowly and without any drama.

Glaciers wont disappear overnight, some times won't even recede very dramatically, but a glacial lake burst can wipe out thousands in a day (very much like Bihar 2008 floods which was triggered by bursting of a dam).

The poor is being effected the most, while sick bureaucrats hassle over Intensity cut or per capita reduction.The people in Mumbai who are facing a tough time in getting tap water are direct victims of climate change. All fisherman who live by the vast coastline are being affected by climate change. And yes, all of you who find Pulses (Daal) costly are victims of climate change.

Indian Stand on Copenhapen summit

I have heard Mr. Jairam Ramesh at Loksabha on CNN-IBN. It's comforting to note that, he understands the upcoming problems. He has raised 4 important points in his speech (all of them are in my top 10 problem list) and he even sounded sincere.

But our agreed stand across political spectrum will not help India or the environment. Lets get our non-negotiable:

1. The treaty can not be "Legally binding". Why folks want a "legally binding" treaty because it has been a common experience that promises made earlier has rarely been kept. You might get 250 different excuses in every summit.

2. A carbon intensity cut of 20%-25% is not good enough, its emission / gdp as the good minister explained. Well if a country get higher Paper GDP (there are various instruments like ignoring inflation, boosting low-carbon-footprint & low-employment-intensive services etc etc), then you get a better carbon intensity score. Even if you fail the target, you can blame it on recession, downturn etc etc. As we know the present economic dream team is drooling over a foolish expectation of double digit growth in at least 7-8 times in next 11 years. In 2020 they will tell you, "Well, Ramesh you done exceeding well,but it is the economy that failed us".

My Dear Minister, Please understand ENVIRONMENT & NATURE does not give a damn about PER CAPITA OR GDP Figures. It works on simple laws of Physics (With out bothering whether you call it science or vigyan).

If we leave a healthy environment for next generation, they will be able to have a healthy economy anyway. Remember Economy & Society have a longer history than Economics. So don't let experts confuse you, do the right thing and revise your/our stand.

Phyan landfall

This was the position of Phyan at 1pm , landfall started.

This was the position of Phyan at 2pm , landfall very much on .

Phyan at 3 pm IST. All screenshots taken from CIMSS Tropical cyclone sites. Well done guys.