What is so populist about it, Dr. Singh?

Does our beloved Prime Minister Know that the country is touching 1.2 billion in population and the most populist idea is a decent life for all of them?

I heard the answer on the aircraft (through TV). I am shocked and appalled by the PM's ignorance of the letters of the budget. Nowhere (you can download and read it too) in the budget has it been said the oil subsidies would be removed.

The 2 things introduces are:

1. Duty of imported crude (Yes, in-spite of big ticket Private entries in Oil exploration, we still import crude).

2. Excise duty on Petrol and diesel.

None of these taxes would go to Oil subsidy pool. Subsidy remains as it is.

If he is so pro-market forces, why no open the oil market for foreign players as well. He is not pro-market or pro-investment (just pro-buddies).

I am not sure if I have convinced you or not. Lets try a simple illustration: Assume Mr. X is Indian oil company and he imports crude. Since historically (Thanks Mrs. Gandhi) oil companies were for-ex starved and they were nationalized, Govt. of India gave subsidies to allow "fuel for all Indian", they get half the money from the GOI as subsides.

For these transactions, Mr. X has to pay the duty for importing. Imagine, Its like taking a rupee back from a beggar from a sum of 10 rupees.

Now poor Mr. X takes the crude to refinery and makes finished product. Even the production is subsidized and the different products attract different Excise duty. Finally there is a OTC sales tax.

So actually, you would these 2 duties does not reduce the burden the subsidy pool. Let me remind you that Dr. Singh & his buddies don't pay for the subsidy but you and I do (And the debt we leave behind for future generations).

No other country in the developed world has a GDP higher than India; if we can't give subsidies for the poor now, then when?

Thanks James Gosling, Sun & Java

Dear James,

My last 13 years of interest in serious computing in java notwithstanding, lets talk economics for a while.

Sun has been single handed biggest generator of jobs (not 4 the brain dead) through its patronage of java and its servers, which basically expedited the reach of internet as many of newbies know it. But the fact remained, Wall street never loved Sun Microsystems. After all, the world belongs to Wall Street.

Strangely, nobody talks about Consumer Interest or Job losses when it comes to mergers & acquisitions by super-heavyweights (Bob Dylan would have said, "You never ask questions with God on your side"). Oracle was a good database company, nothing more. For last 3 years, they were buying rivals as if they have some obligation to use up spouse credit card, before filing 4 a divorce. And no one complained.

Tennessee Williams would have said, "Careful Larry, your claws are showing".

No wonder California will have double digit unemployment (it will take half an hour to prove that, not trying here and now).I see Oracle being broken up in 3-5 years (after the depression that is) to create 3 different companies. Look at GM now, they were doing the same act in 2000-2005. They are selling SAAB now.

Being Big is not the answer, Being great is. So hang it tight.

Although what Java and Sun has done for me can not be explained in few words, but let me sum up saying:
"We had joy, we had fun, we had seasons in the sun.
But the hills that we climbed
were just seasons out of time."

Thanks
Shuvankar Mukherjee
Founder Member of JUG,
JMoCal,
Java Magic On Calcutta (1999 - 2002)

Asia fails to cheer, West grins

Dr. Do-little Barnanke got the investor community bubbling up, all over again. Markets started bouncing back since the European morning. It seems the great trade cycle revolves twice everyday.

Although Dow-Jones did not react to the re-appointment of Dr. Do-little (The principal architect of Recession & subsequent bailout), stock markets picked-up from 10am GMT. Great coordination by speculators across continents.

Nobody cares about rising unemployment across the globe.

Obaba speech loses shine; stocks tumble

Obama Speech Effect has been shrugged off by world market. It lasted a total of 4-5 hours in the world. Then stocks plunged worldwide.

Since Speculative Securities trade is the most cherished and weighed profession, January results will be a dampener for growth of global economy (if any such thing exists). As the hawks of Davos are contemplating, whether there will be a double dip in the recession, the economies all across the globe are heading towards the second dip of the great recession ( We will wait till 2011 for the Depression coinage). This July at least 7 out of G-20s will be back in recession (based on Q2 GDP) and another 8 will plunge by Q3 results.

Bad news, indeed; But if we continue to re-select Dr. Dangerous Bernanke over and over again, what else would you expect. One who never stopped the easy credit for stupid housing, bailed out his super buddy banks and insurance companies and yes; Gave us the “Too big to fail” connotation to big business.

There would be a barrage of JVs launched by Davos-returnee crooks, beware and stay out of it. There would be a spate of Merger & acquisitions by Davos-returnees as well, mostly across distant geographies. It is the task of the governments to ensure that both local consumer interest and local workforce interests are given primary importance. Governments must discourage further job-losses and place punitive strictures in place to prevent such efforts by big business.

Obama speech review

Obama has got it wrong in the President’s speech. The state of the nation speech has been a stage the Presidents are supposed to be populist and they had even lied outright, Remember George W. Bush.

Obama simply toed the line. Let’s bust his theories one by one:

Theory No 1:

China is not waiting for USA to grow.

To tell you the fact based on GDP figures China had never in recession. China had a double digit GDP growth under super low interest rates. Commonsense economics says if it is not sustainable on a long run, then interest rates must go up to prevent the overheating of the economy. But so far China has only hinted an interest rate hike and not tightened it.

So how can China grow at this rate even at this rate? It has a single window for clearing projects, addressing concerns and disputes when it comes to “Modernization & Industrialization”. Without being concerned about health hazard, labor problems and destruction of environment, American investors go hunky dory on investing in China and dump Detroit by the sideline.

China need not depend on USA as US$ is freely available to the Chinese government through Wall Street investment bankers. Besides they have worlds biggest US$ reserves as well.

Theory No 2:

Germany is not waiting for USA to grow.

In fact German exports to USA are completely on shaky grounds, as the consumer base in USA shrinks, so does German need to produce more. Germany never had a local. Economic problem, this was all USA’s fault.

Theory No 3:

India is not waiting for USA.

Man! Please buy Obama a TV with lots of good channels preloaded.

Ever since Obama’s angry speech after Brown’s speech; Indian stock markets has lost 9% of its value. Ever since Obama has spoken and declared “Worst of the storm has passed”, nearly 3% of market capital revived; by day end it should reclaim 6%; by week end it might be even more than 10% as American banks put their money back in so called “Emerging markets”.

Obama wanted to halt the tumbling dominos of major stock markets and by the look of it, he has been successful. So what’s in it for ordinary Americans besides the consolation that trading is still done in USD.

Failure of Copenhagen & Obama-ism

Thanks to CNN-IBN for posting the 7 page pdf, actually it has a single cover page, 2.5 pages of text and 3 pages for empty wishlist.

The (by now) infamous paragraph of 2 degree temperature change, states that signatories "would enhance long-term cooperative action to combat climate change". What would you enhance upon my dear, you have not even met the kyoto accord?

No timeline mentioned in that para and no need for inspection regime.

Lets come down to the next paragraph, this talks about need to cut emissions to go to 50% percent. This is a reiteration but that point is used to side-step the peaking year issue.

Next paragraph talks about adapting to changed climate and developed nations would help without specifying any pledge.

I hate to say this document don't even qualify as a declaration.

We were one step up and this has taken two steps back.

Fossil fuel industry wins again, Obama is nothing but a show-boat.

Obama's actions have proved him to be as pro-oil as a Neo-con.

Who is affected by climate change in india

The elite is most environment insensitive in India. You need to explain to the commoner that what are the ill-effects of climate change. Frequent cyclones, irregular monsoon, crop failure, water scarcity, yield reduction these are common mans problem. The food price inflation is triggered in 2009 by climate change.

Media and commoners are thinking sea-rise will trigger a tsunami, but in reality it will get worse day by day and very slowly and without any drama.

Glaciers wont disappear overnight, some times won't even recede very dramatically, but a glacial lake burst can wipe out thousands in a day (very much like Bihar 2008 floods which was triggered by bursting of a dam).

The poor is being effected the most, while sick bureaucrats hassle over Intensity cut or per capita reduction.The people in Mumbai who are facing a tough time in getting tap water are direct victims of climate change. All fisherman who live by the vast coastline are being affected by climate change. And yes, all of you who find Pulses (Daal) costly are victims of climate change.