Monsoon Update Analysed

Watching 15th July Monsoon rainfall status image above, you may be tricked into thinking Monsoon has picked up pace and shall be normal, but the reality is far from the colored map released by IMD.
I don't know what weights they give to which segment, but Indian Meteorological Zones can grossly segmented into following zones based on terrains and geographical locations:

1. Himalayan Terrain : Rainfall here is important as it feeds the rivers of North India.
2. Northern Plains or the Grain Bowl: Deficiency is up to 55% (without fancy weights).
3. Coastal Plains: Rain has been excellent here but the agricultural produces of these zones are not that great.
4. Plateau & Plains: Rained better only on a rainy day.
5. Islands: They won't have water shortages this year.
6. Low Rainfall zones: Rajastan and some places on the wrong sides of the Western ghat mountains.
7. Assam & Meghalaya: This zone has hills, plateaus and mighty bhramaputa runs through its plains too, Tea plantation hub.

So I don't agree with met office a single bit on Monsoon prediction, the fact is monsoon is consistent below 2oth parallel and its not miserable on the places above it. The reason is, the missing arm of monsoon which came through Bay of Bengal.

Meteorological Zone	Terrain	Normal Rainfall	Actual Rainfall	% Change
Coastal Karnataka	Coastal Plain	1474.9	1520.4	3.09
Konkan & Goa	Coastal Plain	1206.5	1145.2	-5.08
Kerala	Coastal Plain	1080.7	908.3	-15.95
Orissa	Coastal Plain	373.4	446.6	19.60
Saurashtra kautch + Diu	Coastal Plain	179.9	181.9	1.11
Coastal A.P.	Coastal Plain	170.7	118.8	-30.40
Tamil Nadu Pondi.	Coastal Plain	72.9	59	-19.07
	Coastal Plain Total	4559	4380.2	-3.92
Gangetic W.B.	Grain bowl	392.2	210.3	-46.38
Bihar	Grain bowl	340	127.5	-62.50
East UP	Grain bowl	249.1	110	-55.84
West UP	Grain bowl	191.5	75.7	-60.47
Punjab	Grain bowl	127.5	56.2	-55.92
Har., Chd & Delhi	Grain bowl	122.4	49.9	-59.23
	Grain bowl Total	1422.7	629.6	-55.75
Assam & Meghalaya	H.Plains & plateau	853.9	488.1	-42.84
	H.Plains & plateau Total	853.9	488.1
Sikkim Him. WB	Himalayan	790.5	579	-26.76
Arunachal Pradesh	Himalayan	769.9	587	-23.76
N.M.M.T.	Himalayan	531.9	294.8	-44.57
Uttarakhand	Himalayan	359.4	153.3	-57.35
HP	Himalayan	209.7	86.8	-58.61
Jammu & Kashmir	Himalayan	130.4	101.9	-21.86
	Himalayan Total	2791.8	1802.8	-35.43
A & N Islands	Islands	680.5	727.2	6.86
Lakshadweep	Islands	458.7	637.2	38.91
	Islands Total	1139.2	1364.4	19.77
E. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	157.7	116.4	-26.19
N. I. Karnataka	Low rainfall	152.1	166.6	9.53
Rayalaseema	Low rainfall	95.6	75.8	-20.71
W. Rajasthan	Low rainfall	72.1	60.1	-16.64
	Low rainfall Total	477.5	418.9	-12.27
Chattisgarh	Plateau & Plains	378.3	306.5	-18.97
Jharkhand	Plateau & Plains	353	212.3	-39.86
Vidarbha	Plateau & Plains	331.9	275.5	-16.99
East MP	Plateau & Plains	323.3	218.9	-32.29
Inner Gujarat &Daman	Plateau & Plains	304.1	152.2	-49.95
Madhya Maharashtra	Plateau & Plains	254.1	220.8	-13.11
West MP	Plateau & Plains	247.9	169.3	-31.71
S. I. Karnataka	Plateau & Plains	246.5	269	9.13
Telangana	Plateau & Plains	234.7	141.8	-39.58
Marathwada	Plateau & Plains	220.5	166.1	-24.67
	Plateau & Plains Total	2894.3	2132.4	-26.32
	Grand Total	14138.4	11216.4

Effects to Agriculture:
1. Drastic fall is rice and other grain production.
2. Tea production of lower quality and quantity.
3. Hyper-inflation to be seen in food indices in next 6 months.

Fraud in science: Liar! Liar! | The Economist

An amazing article came up on The Economist. A must read for all who take scientific data seriously.
Fraud in science: Liar! Liar! | The Economist

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Monsoon 2009

Every other politician like Mr. Sharad Pawar, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee has started giving meteorological forecast these days. The reality is depicted in the maps given above (source: Indian Met Office Website).

This is the rainfall map for 1st June to 8Th July.

So what FM claimed in NDTV interview, that Monsoon will make up with surplus rain in July.

Few points I need to mention over here:

1. Monsoon is a natural phenomenon (Sorry Its not on government payroll) and has no compulsion to fill up any deficits or to meet any target. It is only governed by many simple rules of physics.

2. If monsoon actually fills up the rainfall deficits upto now in next 14 days or so, the areas shown in red in the maps above will be flooded. This will bring more misery,not less.

3. This one is for all politicians:

You can not trade with nature for your survival, Just like a new born baby can not trade with the mother for the milk.

Drought - the dreaded D word

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/06/26/india.drought/index.html#cnnSTCVideo
View this CNN report and tell your government to do something to help these 600 million plus people.

A series of two troughs are causing some rainfall and will cause in western and central India, but the run-offs will be high as they are coming from west and not south-east. How come?
You see the terrain is mostly hilly and it has lots of plateaus and rainfalls will not be on the right side of the hills, where cultivatable lands are present and water harvesting technique is really poor here.
Will there be any benefits from these rains on the last days of June?
Temperature will lower a bit there and water scarcity will be reduced but that will not be good enough for crops.

So the fear of drought is still real, no matter what these politician-lackey turned bureaucrats will tell you, don’t stop the activism.

And of course a heartfelt thanks goes to CNN for reporting the truth about India, which is half the world away from their HQ at Atlanta. Great work.

Indian Politician speak- Part 1 (What media forgot to highlight)

Is Sheila Dixit the new Marie Antoinette of Indian politics:
Marie Antoinette said: “Let them eat cake.”
Sheila Dixit on huge power cut has advised the people of Delhi for conservation of power.

Her brand of conservation is "Instead of running 4 air-conditioners run 2, and if possible run 1"

The fact is majority of Delhi homes are not fitted with A-Cs, the low-income and middle-income group can not afford it. Only the upper-middle class and the rich uses that.

My request to Delhi Chief Minister is "Please think before you open your mouth". The poor are dying in juggi-jopries (slum houses), if you can not mourn, if you can not help, please at least don't ridicule them.

The Bull-shit Markets

While I was busy doing my usual chores, the goons of Fiscal market are back in the securities market all over the world. For last 3 months, they have clamouring for peoples money after being rebooting their kitty by taxpayers money.

With the exception of Bernie Madoff, no one faces a criminal charge and are being embraced by the political elite. In the mean-time industries are shedding workforce and rising unemployment should give worrying signs of socio-economic troubles.

The fact is that, this stock market recovery is a flight of fancied, which has no wings; when crude can go to $68, when only true "I will drive my car anyway" economy, the US is in tatters and GM is getting bankrupt and jobloses seem like never ending streams, the share market rises are purely speculative.

These are fictional assets which can be evaporated at one bad quarter. Watch out for quarter end results!!!!

Climate change and Monsoon

The Change in Monsoon Rain patterns is immense this year; The Indian Met offices laughable prediction of 96% monsoon driven rainfall is becoming truly incorrect.

The driving factors of global climate are:

• Anti-cyclones in the polar region: The ones in stretching from Antarctic to 40Th Parallel is disturbing the major accumulation of rain-clouds of the Somalia coast which comes down to Indian sub-continent as Monsoon in May to September each year. It is shearing off the clouds once every week as one anti-cyclone dissipates and another emerges in oceans south of Africa.

• Second factor are the anti-cyclones which are being created in the pacific, they are creating weather fronts which is picking water vapor from South China Sea and their strong pull is increasing the Mean Wind speed of Monsoon wind and driving the wind straight in an easterly direction in Bay of Bengal and pushing it across Andaman Sea into Thailand & Burma.

• Third factor is the weather of north India is being bombarded by “western disturbance” even in June (They are usually found in January to March), which is causing another change in wind shear patterns.
  
  From the satellite pictures you might see rain clouds over Bangladesh and say monsoon has arrived, but a look into convergence detail and wind directions will tell you the clouds are going out to the bay and over to Burma.
  
  Monsoon Winds in Northern Hemisphere are moving westerly (from the west to east direction), Period. Monsoon this year is not being freaky but setting the standards in warmer climate for years to come.
  
  So storms 1B (Bijli) and 2B(Aila) will be repeated every year with more to come. Indian government should prepare itself for a special deadly mix of Drought and Cyclones.